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Positive sentiment in markets was driven by hopes of government support, despite a decline in Japan's Nikkei index. The launch of DeepSeek's AI model raised concerns over US tech dominance, impacting shares of major Japanese tech firms. Meanwhile, oil prices fell under pressure from US calls for OPEC to cut prices, and the euro weakened against the franc.
UBS forecasts an aggressive US trade policy as the most likely scenario, predicting a 30% effective tariff on China and retaliatory measures from Beijing. The bank anticipates solid US economic growth despite trade tensions, with equities expected to rise 8% this year and a decline in Treasury yields by 2025.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new measures to promote index-linked investment products, following efforts to bolster local fund allocations amid US tariff threats and AI competition. China's PMI manufacturing index fell to 49.1 in January, indicating a slowdown ahead of the Lunar New Year, while major Asian markets showed mixed results, with South Korea's Kospi gaining 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei losing 0.5%. In stock movements, Beijing Haibo Si Chuang Technology surged 218% in Shanghai, and Yalian Machinery rose 198% in Shenzhen.
China is set to attract US$236 billion in net inflows from state-owned investors into its stock market this year, driven by a plan to stabilize the market amid rising US tensions. Major institutional investors, including insurers and mutual funds, are encouraged to increase their A-share holdings significantly, aiming to create a "slow bull market" and bolster investor confidence. Recent measures also include directing large state-owned insurers to invest a portion of new premiums into A shares, reflecting ongoing government support for the stock market amid economic challenges.
Novo Nordisk A/S focuses on the design, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products, with 92.6% of sales from diabetes and obesity treatments and 7.4% from rare disease therapies. Geographically, 54.9% of sales come from the United States, followed by Europe-Middle East-Africa at 21.9%, and other regions.
UBS has raised concerns about the volatility of the Chinese yuan (CNY) amid ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade policy. Despite a favorable fourth quarter GDP growth of 5.4% in China, high demand for US dollars and potential deflationary trends could lead to further CNY depreciation. UBS forecasts the USDCNY could rise to 7.50 in the first half of 2025 if significant tariffs are imposed, while more lenient trade negotiations could see it test 7.00 or lower.
UBS has raised concerns about the volatility of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) amid ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade policies. While China's GDP growth of 5.4% in Q4 exceeded expectations, high demand for USD and potential deflationary pressures could lead to further CNY depreciation. UBS forecasts the USDCNY could rise to 7.50 in early 2025 if significant tariffs are imposed, but a resolution in trade negotiations could see it drop below 7.00.
UBS has rated Rio Tinto 'Neutral' with a target price of 5250 pence. The company is a major player in mining, with 2023 production primarily in iron ore (62.5%), followed by aluminium, alumina, and bauxite (22.2%), copper (5.9%), and other minerals. Geographically, 59.6% of net sales come from China, with significant contributions from the United States (13.9%) and Japan (6.9%).
In 2023, China is making significant strides in AI and semiconductor technology, with Huawei's Mate 60 Pro showcasing domestic chip innovation despite U.S. sanctions. Startups like DeepSeek are developing competitive AI models, while state support fuels local chip manufacturers like SMIC and Cambricon. China's rapid adoption of AI across industries positions it as a formidable player in the global tech landscape, potentially narrowing the gap with Western advancements.
Elon Musk's significant business ties with China raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest, particularly as he holds a prominent role in the U.S. government. Critics, including former naval officials, warn that Musk's alignment with Chinese Communist Party narratives could undermine U.S. support for Taiwan amid escalating tensions with Beijing. As the Biden administration navigates its China policy, Musk's influence and statements may complicate efforts to counteract China's aggressive maneuvers in the region.
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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