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Emerging market stocks face ongoing uncertainty due to trade tensions, US domestic policy shifts, and lackluster macro fundamentals in China, leading to underperformance against US peers. Despite this, a selective approach to tariffs and structural support in key markets like Taiwan and India may yield high-single-digit to low-teen returns by the end of 2025. China remains neutral amid trade uncertainties, with potential AI advancements boosting its technology sector's competitiveness.
In 2024, China's smartphone market saw a modest 1.5% growth, with Huawei leading the charge at 36%, driven by its high-end Mate series. Xiaomi followed with a 10% increase, while Vivo grew by 6%. In contrast, Apple and Oppo faced declines of 13% and 9%, respectively, amid tightening competition. Looking ahead, government subsidies may boost consumer spending, but economic uncertainty looms.
Crédit Agricole Personal Finance & Mobility has acquired a 50% stake in GAC Finance Leasing Co. Ltd., now rebranded as Guangzhou GAC-Sofinco Finance Leasing Co Ltd, enhancing electric vehicle financing in China. This partnership, dating back to 2009, aims to support the growing demand for sustainable mobility, with EVs comprising 60% of the leasing contracts and a portfolio of over 200,000 vehicles. The transaction received all necessary regulatory approvals and is expected to have a minimal impact on the CET1 ratio of Crédit Agricole S.A. and the broader group.
Chinese start-up DeepSeek has launched its AI model R1, which rivals US applications like ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost, causing significant market shifts. Despite US trade restrictions, DeepSeek claims to have trained R1 using only 2,000 Nvidia chips, raising questions about the future of AI investments and US dominance in the sector. The model's success has led to a sharp decline in Nvidia's stock and has prompted concerns over the viability of data center investments, as well as potential political tensions between the US and China.
Huawei achieved remarkable 36% year-on-year growth in the 2024 Chinese smartphone market, securing the top position with innovative models like the Pura 70, Nova 13, and Mate 70. While the overall market grew by 1.5%, competitors like Xiaomi and Vivo also saw gains, but brands such as Apple, OPPO, and Honor experienced declines. The market is expected to rebound in 2025, with Huawei likely to maintain its leadership through continued innovation.
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross criticized the World Bank for allowing China to borrow significantly while U.S. taxpayers fund its operations. He highlighted a report accusing the bank of losing track of $24 billion in climate funding and suggested that the U.S. should reassess its financial relationship with the institution. Ross emphasized that the World Bank should focus on economic development rather than ideological issues like climate change.
Huawei has introduced DeepSeek-optimized inference support for its Ascend AI GPUs, launching the distilled R1 AI model for free on its ModelArts Studio platform. This model, trained on Nvidia's H800 GPUs, is now compatible with Huawei's Ascend GPUs, potentially reducing reliance on Western technology amid ongoing US export restrictions. The Ascend 910C GPU reportedly achieves 60% of the performance of Nvidia's H100, marking a significant step towards China's technological independence in AI processing.
Postal Savings Bank of China Co, Ltd. operates in three main areas: retail banking (43.2% of interest income), investment and market banking (34.1%), and corporate banking (22.7%). By the end of 2021, the bank managed CNY 11,354.1 billion in deposits and CNY 6,237.2 billion in loans, with services offered through a network of 360 branches across China.
Alibaba is set to report its Q4 2024 earnings on February 12, with expectations of $39.15 billion in revenue and $2.75 EPS. The previous quarter's results highlighted tepid growth amid economic challenges in China, raising concerns about consumer spending and regulatory impacts. Analysts predict a potential share price increase to $120.35, contingent on the earnings report's performance.
HSBC Holdings PLC plans to exit its mergers and acquisitions and some equities businesses in Europe and the Americas to focus on the more profitable Asian market. CEO Michael Roberts emphasized a shift to a financing-led model, while the bank continues its global debt capital markets operations. This restructuring, led by CEO Georges Elhedery, aims to streamline operations and reduce costs, including potential cuts to retail operations outside the U.K. and Hong Kong.
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emerging markets face uncertainty but potential growth opportunities ahead
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